El NINO AND OLIFANTS WEST NATURE RESERVE
El Nino and its effects on Wildlife in Greater Kruger
El Nino events are characterised by unusually warm ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific which can significantly alter
global weather patterns. El Nino is triggered by a warm current of water flowing past the Peruvian coast replacing the cold water current which happens every two to five years.
When El Nino arrives this typically spells drought for our area. The latest El Nino event which began last summer 2023 is expected to cause lower rainfall and higher temperatures as it did in 2015-2016 producing extreme drought conditions here which was exasperated by a further El Nino event in 2018-2019.
No two El Nino events are exactly alike and the impacts on weather patterns vary. This latest El Nino has resulted in no significant rain benefit as the rainfall since mid January here on Olifants West Nature Reserve in the Greater Kruger whereas summer rains often extend to the end of April. We have also experienced a very warm winter. The long range forecast for our area is no significant rains until November.
It appears this EL Nino event has been one of the strongest on record. What this has meant is that the bush is extremely dry with very little nutritious food for herbivores and their winter fat reserves are looking depleted. In other words the herbivores are losing weight and strength. The last cycle of drought saw a sharp fall off of the populations of buffalo and hippo within the entire Kruger Park area. The buffalo population fell by more than 60% .
Water is still generally available due to the abundance of artificial waterholes and the Olifants River running through our reserve although very low is still flowing. The problem facing most species is the lack of nutritious food.
As usual in nature , when changing conditions adversely affect some species, others will prosper. In this case it is the major predators ie lion, hyena, leopard wild dog etc…who benefit.
From a guest perspective it has been a marvellous time for leopard sightings which have been abundant as the bush has thinned out.
The good news is that the El Nino cycle has ended and we are in a neutral phase with the betting on the arrival of El Nina being November time.
In the meantime we are doing our rain dances.
